Nothing now seems able to prevent the outbreak of a conflict in Europe. And for good reason: the break is now official, even if the consequences are only beginning to take shape. The publication, on Friday, December 5, of the new U.S. national security strategy marks an unprecedented turning point. This document, meant to reflect the priorities and worldview of the current administration, reads as a sharp rebuke to America’s traditional allies, particularly those in the Old Continent.
EUROPE: A CONTINENT ON HOLD?
In a text of about thirty pages, Europe occupies only two and a half pages—a negligible space for what feels like a premature death notice. According to Washington, the continent could become “unrecognizable in less than twenty years” if current trends continue. Economic decline, though real, is nothing compared to the more immediate threat of “civilizational erasure.” The symptoms? Demographic collapse, dilution of national identities, growing political repression, creeping censorship, stifling bureaucracy, and above all, massive immigration. The document even predicts that some NATO countries could, in a few decades, no longer have a majority of European ethnicity.
A HAND EXTENDED… ON CONDITIONS
Yet the United States does not advocate abandoning Europe outright. On the contrary, it proposes a form of ideological annexation. American aid would now be conditional, selective, and openly political. The text enthusiastically praises the rise of “patriotic parties” in Europe, which should be supported to „foster resistance“ to the continent’s current trajectory. In other words, Washington is betting on the fragmentation of European states and the weakening of Brussels’ institutions.
This direction comes as no surprise. It mirrors almost verbatim the speech delivered by Vice President J.D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference last February. Some saw it as an isolated provocation. In reality, it already reflected the administration’s official line. Evidence: that same Friday, the European Union fined X (formerly Twitter) Euro 120 million for failing to comply with online content rules—a decision labeled “an attack on the American people” by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaling that transatlantic relations have entered a new era.
UKRAINE: A FILE TO BE SETTLED
On the security front, Europe is expected to assume its own defense. For the United States, the urgency lies elsewhere: achieving a “negotiated cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.” The document emphasizes the need for American diplomatic engagement to “restore strategic stability in Eurasia” and prevent a direct conflict between Russia and European countries. A clear message to Moscow: NATO expansion is off the table, and Ukraine will not join the alliance.
No mention is made, however, of Russian responsibility for the war or its destabilization capabilities. European governments, on the other hand, are openly criticized for their “unrealistic expectations” and inability to turn their populations’ desire for peace into concrete action—a rhetoric that echoes Russian propaganda, which claims European leaders are artificially prolonging the conflict.
A WORLD WITHOUT ILLUSIONS
This document is more a political manifesto than a strategic analysis. It abandons comprehensiveness in favor of a short list of priorities: border control, economic predation, and securing strategic resources. Climate issues, multilateral institutions, or even the exemplary nature of the American model have no place here. Only power dynamics and national interests matter, in a world where no one seeks to impose a common order.
AMERICA FIRST, THE REST LATER
The codified American strategy marks the end of the post-1945 era. Traditional alliances are valued only for what they can yield. Values? A meaningless notion, except when used to export selective freedom of expression to benefit identity movements while silencing critical media on American soil.
The Middle East, once central to U.S. concerns, is now just another dossier. The region has lost strategic importance since the United States achieved energy independence. Asia, meanwhile, is reduced to a single issue: China. The document carefully avoids ideological references, focusing instead on maintaining military dominance in the South China Sea and preventing any aggression against Taiwan.
A CONTROLLED WESTERN HEMISPHERE
The Trump administration confirms its priority: the American hemisphere, considered a backyard to defend against outside influence. Strategic resources will be identified and exploited in partnership with aligned governments. U.S. military forces will be redeployed, with lethal force preferred over law enforcement strategies deemed ineffective.
AND NOW?: For the Europeans, the document is a cold shower. “It will be harder to continue courting Trump,” says Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations. Beyond the shock headlines, the American strategy does not fundamentally change the game. It merely reveals, without embellishment, what many already suspected: the era of alliances based on shared values is over. Power dynamics, clear self-interest, and a Europe forced to choose sides—or vanish—now take center stage.
*Author is former member of the UN senior staff