Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman comes to Washington following several days marked by a steady stream of contradictory leaks. This wave of conflicting information underscores the significant influence Saudi Arabia now holds in the American president’s foreign policy. The entire region is watching, but it is in Israel that every detail, gesture and statement of the visit will be examined with the greatest attention.
The upcoming visit carries substantial weight. Discussions are expected to address major strategic issues, including arms sales, security cooperation, massive economic contracts and of course the Israeli Palestinian conflict, which remains the most volatile issue in the Middle East. The presence of a Saudi leader of this stature in Washington is never purely ceremonial. It signals a moment in which regional priorities shift, alliances evolve and the ambitions of major players are openly tested.
In recent days, leaks suggested that Washington was prepared to supply Riyadh with F35 fighter jets, among the most advanced military aircraft in existence. Shortly afterward, other reports claimed that Israel was pressuring the United States to condition such a sale on a formal Saudi recognition of the Jewish state. Almost simultaneously, Palestinian officials indicated that Saudi Arabia had reassured them that no recognition was possible as long as the current Israeli government continued to oppose any progress on Palestinian rights. In reply, Israel’s Defense Minister declared that there would never be a Palestinian state, closing the door to any immediate compromise.
These contradictory messages highlight the central position Saudi Arabia occupies in the current reshaping of the Middle East. Two major dynamics are at play. The first concerns the rivalry for influence in Washington between Israel and Riyadh. For decades, Israel has held a dominant position in American diplomacy. Yet Saudi Arabia now benefits from strong personal, political and financial ties developed by the US President Donald Trump with the Gulf monarchies. Recent revelations about a massive Saudi real estate project involving the Trump Organization have reinforced this impression.
The second dynamic relates to the evolving status of the Palestinian question within international institutions. A United States drafted resolution at the United Nations Security Council has been revised under Arab and French pressure to more explicitly emphasize Palestinian self-determination. The Netanyahu government rejected this development immediately, fearing that a new diplomatic framework might be imposed from the outside.
On the ground, the situation continues to deteriorate. Settler violence in the West Bank has reached unprecedented levels, while Gaza appears to be moving toward a long-term division, with the territory split between Israeli control and Hamas authority. In this context, Saudi Arabia has enough regional weight to restrain certain Israeli initiatives considered destabilizing, such as a full annexation of the West Bank, yet not enough to impose a fair or balanced settlement.
Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington is therefore seen as a pivotal moment that could reveal the real balance of power in the Middle East and clarify Washington’s strategic direction for the coming months. Depending on the outcomes, the visit could either help ease regional tensions or confirm the current diplomatic deadlock.
*Author is former member of the UN senior staff