Sam Potolicchio, a professor at Georgetown University, in an interview with Novi magazin talks about the upcoming elections in the U.S., major issues of the campaign, Romney’s advantages over Obama and Obama’s chances to be reelected.
U.S. presidential elections will be held in November this year. What will be the major issues of the campaign?
I think it’s going to be the economy… As you see, now that the economy is starting to recover a little bit, which is a positive issue for Barak Obama, Republican candidate Mitt Romney has pivoted and change direction to making issue with some statements that Obama made regarding Russia and China. So a lot is gonna depend on the quickness of the economic recovery. If it’s a quick recovery, the Republicans will have to use another issue against Obama. If the economy stagnates or decline, that’s gonna be the main issue.
Another big issue is going to be health care and the big ruling of the Supreme Court this summer on whether or not that signature, piece of legislation by Barak Obama is constitutional. If they rule it unconstitutional Barak Obama is going to say that it was undemocratic act and he’s going to push the health care again. And if the health care is ruled constitutional, the Republicans are going to say that this was really unconstitutional act.
Mitt Romney is most likely to be the candidate of the Republican Party for the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. What is his advantage over president Obama?
It’s a great question because Mitt Romney on paper looks perfect. He has very elite educational background, he made a lot of money in business, he is very disciplined, he looks like a president in sense that he’s extraordinarily good looking, he has a big beautiful family, he’s by all accounts a pleasant human being. But, no one really likes him. No one is really passionate about this guy and many people think that he is just like Democratic candidate before him – Al Gore and John Carry – someone who is not gonna connect with the American people. So in terms of his big advantage it is really going to depend on the state of the economy. Because, if the state of the economy does not recover like it should or like Obama hopes, that will be his big advantage. If not, his advantage is going to be quite little. Because he hasn’t got any advantage when it comes to harisma, he’s not gonna have any advantage when it comes to foreign policy because he’s gonna be going against anti-war president who helps capture Osama bin Laden and he’s not gonna have advantage when it comes to fundraising. Because, Barak Obama is gonna probably raise record braking money just like he did in 2008. So Barak Obama will have a huge advantage and pretty easily win the elections unless some big scandal occurs.
Does Mitt Romney have any chance to beat Obama?
Yes, he does. If I would have bet right now, I would say Barak Obama will win the election. How he does not win the elections are some sort of scandal ether in his office or administration, some sort of policy set back or the economy does not recovery like the American people expected to recover. Other than that, Barak Obama will be reelected.
Romney has given contradictory statements regarding key social issues such as gay rights. How do the voters feel about that?
When Republicans run in the primary elections the people that turn out to vote the primary are more conservative and so you need to say more conservative things when you’re in the primary elections. Right now he’s running against other Republicans and they are trying to compete to see who is the most conservative to win these voters. But when it comes to general election, independent voters who didn’t participate in Democratic or Republican primaries are more moderate. So the Republican candidate who is so conservative is gonna have to move more to the center. And this is actually a weakness of Mitt Romney. In his career when he was a politician in Massachusetts he was considered to be pretty liberal, and for Republicans, very liberal. In fact, the health care legislation that the Republicans don’t like, he essentially had the same health care legislation in Massachusetts as governor before Obama even did. So it’s gonna be very difficult for him to authentically run as a conservative Republican when his track record shows that he’s a moderate Republican, not conservative Republican.
Do you think that U.S. citizens are kind of disappointed with Obama?
That’s a good question because his approval rating is below 50 %. Just about the same amount of people disapprove of him then approve of him. So, people would say it’s about even. However, based on the economic performance, with the recession and the slower recovery than expected, he’s actually doing a lot better than most presidents would be doing at this time. Because lots of Americans do vote based on their wallet and how they feel and they take that out on a president even if a president is not to be blamed for it at all. So, on average I wouldn’t say disappointed I would say kind of mediocre performance in their eyes.
If Romney wins, how will that affect the relations between Serbia and the U.S.?
I think it’s smart for me to completely avoid this question because I don’t want to speculate and my expertise is not in foreign policy and also because in some ways it is unpredictable. I get this question all the time when I travel to other countries. One of the thing that a lot of countries do is that they overate how much the administration is gonna care, right now during the primary season an even during the general election about a certain country. And my believe is that Romney right now overlooking Serbia and he is looking at other geopolitical fault lines like China, Russia and Iran and they are getting all the intentions right now.
How would you describe the relations between Serbia and the U.S. at this moment?
I’m not gonna speak for my State Department but I’ll say as one of the biggest American fans of Serbia all I’ve seen are great relations because I keep coming back here and treated with great hospitality. My friends from Serbia also come to America to see me. I’m hoping that what I see when I meet this people is something that can exist on our foreign policy relations as well.