By Vojin Rakic
In medicine, the “terminal phase of a disease” generally denotes the stadium when a terminally ill patient enters a stage when he or she is irreversibly approaching death.
There are multifarious reasons that can be used in order to argue that Vučić’s mafia has entered the terminal phase of its disease.
Why call it a disease? Vučić’s regime, although officially governing the country, no longer even resembles a political grouping that deals primarily with politics. It is obvious that it is a criminal organization, a mafia, that does not even hide its nature. All its scandals ranging from state budget robbery, via the retelling to the smallest detail of the grinding and eating of human meat by an individual who is officially listed as “President of the Republic” (Vučić) – as if he himself had participated in grinding and cannibalizing people, to the state-sponsored organization of pedophile chains that has never even been attempted to be denied, as well as all other highly bizarre appearances of regime representatives in the media, do not leave the impression that Serbia is ruled by a political group – not even authoritarian, totalitarian or “sultanic”, but that it is governed by a mafia that has registered itself as a political party.
All this testifies of severe socio-political pathology, of a state that has contracted a disease. Hence, medical terminology is very appropriate in this case.
A state is almost never ruled by the mafia, and if this phenomenon is encountered somewhere, it cannot be long-lived. Namely, the state apparatus is something that is run by politicians and civil servants, not mobsters. They are simply not qualified for that activity. That is also the reason why it was clear from the outset that the mafia order cannot survive in Serbia for long. It is not a natural order in a state. It is not adapted to the state.
One of the reasons for the seemingly sudden change of tone (of course it is much more than the tone alone) of the US toward Serbia and its surrounding is that it has become definitely clear to the decision-makers in the US that the last possibilities for Aleksandar Vučić’s regime to do anything useful in the “region” have been exhausted, and that it is, as a mafia-based order, doomed to rapid ruin. It has become obvious that it has entered the terminal phase of its socio-political disease. Thus the conclusion that it is not rational to invest in any way in the Vučić regime.
President Biden’s Administration, in addition to apparently possessing hundreds of hours of conversations in which the mafia in Serbia, and especially its boss, discusses how to commit crimes, which the public in Serbia probably will only find out about, becoming even more horrified than it already is, also has a strong awareness that Aleksandar Vučić is the main obstacle to the democratization of the entire “region”.
Activating people with great experience in this region, such as the already retired Ambassador Christopher Hill, clearly indicates that they will not leave their appointments before the rule of Aleksandar Vučić has been terminated. Their mission will be considered complete when Serbia ceases to be an autocratic and criminalized quasi-state.
At least one recent event is a good indicator that testifies about the climate that begins to dominate the US when Serbia is concerned:
Seven individuals from the US legislature are demanding measures that will curb the criminalized autocratic regime in Serbia and help democratic forces in the country. The letter of the seven Congressmen clearly indicates that, and it is worth mentioning that three of them are from Chicago – a city that provides a significant number of Serbian votes in US elections.
One of the measures the Congressmen require is to put regime politicians from Serbia on “Biden`s blacklist” of human rights violators and corrupt politicians who have to be banned from entering the United States and whose property in the US is to be frozen. One of those regime politicians, the Congressmen emphasize, is Vučić himself.
It should also be noted that the United States is not repeating the mistake of the 1990s, imposing sanctions on Serbia as a state, but that it imposes sanctions on specific individuals, which are key levers of corruption, crime, and human rights violations.
And, of course, one should always count on the moves of the regime in Serbia itself: moves that inflict incalculable damage on the regime itself. The police and para-police defense of the mural with the image of a man sentenced to life in prison for war crimes (Ratko Mladić), leaves an unforgettable impression of the nature of the regime in Serbia: everywhere in the world – even exactly on “the International Day Against Fascism and Anti-Semitism”.
The significantly stronger engagement of the US in the Western Balkans is a reliable sign that the “exitus letalis” (final exhalation, death) of the mafia is closer than many thought. New US measures will almost certainly follow, which will make Vučić even more worried – of course not because of Serbia, but because of himself. The citizens of Serbia are likely to see soon what those measures are.
Nobody can know in advance what the exact epilogue of the rule of the criminal regime in Serbia will be. Whether this will be election-related or if the fall of the regime will take place in another way, outside of any election-related context, is also unpredictable.
In professional literature on democratic transitions, indeterminacy is one of the key components that characterize these transitions. But what is certain is that authoritarian regimes fall rapidly when the conditions that are met in Serbia have been realized. The unnatural, politically maladapted mafia-based order in Serbia can only further accelerate the process of democratic transition.
Machiavelli, in accordance with his recognizable way of thinking, assessed that it is best for a statesman (tyrant) to be both loved and feared by his subjects. But if he has to choose, it is better that his subjects fear him. Because about love, Machiavelli claimed, it is the subjects who decide. The ruler, on the other hand, is the one who decides whether his subjects will fear him.
That is why the citizens of Serbia should only be afraid of fear. When fear disappears, the last condition will be satisfied for the tyrant’s endgame.
The Serbian opposition made a very important decision: it began to show by its example that it is possible to act without fear. This is shown to some degree by politicians from the SSP who are exposed to harassment, insults, lies, and threats, this is shown by the DS, which despite a real war waged by the SNS against it managed to consolidate and revitalize itself, this is also shown by the movement which I lead, New 6 October, which, despite the worst possible threats of the regime and the regime’s para-judiciary against my children, only intensifies its determination and offensive against the criminal regime. It is also shown by the People’s Party, as well as various other political parties and movements.
If this attitude of the opposition persists, the fears of the majority of non-partisan citizens of Serbia will disappear rather rapidly, and even supporters of the SNS (not the real ones, but the merely manifest ones) will be deprived of their fears.
The disappearance of fear will be the critical event when the regime will move from the terminal phase of its socio-political disease to its exitus letalis.
Professor Vojin Rakić, PhD
Full Professor at the Center for the Study of Bioethics
President of the Movement New 6 October
Translated by Dušica Kovačević, Research Associate at the Institute for Social Sciences