For several years, French military leadership has been closely monitoring rising tensions in Eastern Europe. For General Fabien Mandon, Chief of the Defence Staff, the Russian threat is no longer an abstraction; it is tangible and pressing. Moscow appears intent on testing NATO’s resilience, amassing troops and equipment in strategic areas near European borders. Internal estimates suggest that the Russian army could mobilize between 120,000 and 150,000 soldiers, supported by more than 2,500 main battle tanks, 10,000 armored vehicles, and 1,500 heavy artillery pieces.
In response, General Mandon has adopted a proactive posture. While his predecessors focused on competition and contestation, he emphasizes the need to take the initiative and prepare for a direct confrontation. “Our forces must be capable of reacting within 72 hours on any European theater,” he stresses, noting that the threat could manifest in hybrid forms—cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, drone incursions—or escalate to conventional conflict in the near future.
AN EXPANSIVE RUSSIA
Russia behaves as an expansionist power, seeking to extend its influence and test Europe’s limits. General Schill, Chief of Staff of the French Army, emphasizes that this reality compels France and its allies to strengthen their military capabilities.
The scale of the challenge is quantifiable. To counter Russia’s growing power, France must produce precision missiles, anti-radar systems, and reinforce its surface-to-air defence. According to internal assessments, the production of missiles necessary for a prolonged conflict would take at least three years, justifying the requested 6.7 billion Euro increase in the 2025 defence budget. Additional needs include tactical drones, strategic munitions, and modern cyber defence equipment.
French vs Russian Forces – Key Data
|
Branch |
France |
Russia |
Comment |
|
Army |
~120,000 troops |
120,000–150,000 deployable |
Russian ground forces are numerically superior, especially in armour (2,500 tanks vs 400 French). |
|
Combat Aircraft |
300 planes (Rafale + Mirage) |
1,200 operational aircraft |
Russian numerical advantage; France relies on quality and modernisation (70 additional Rafales by 2028). |
|
Navy |
118 vessels, including 1 aircraft carrier |
352 vessels |
Russia superior in numbers, but France maintains modernized fleet including nuclear submarines. |
|
Cyber Defense |
Strengthened national capability |
Advanced offensive capability (~3,000 attacks/year) |
France combines cyber defence with NATO coordination. |
|
Air Defense |
SAMP/T, Mamba, Aster |
S-400, S-500 |
Russia has long-range systems; France prioritizes mobility and NATO integration. |
|
Nuclear Deterrence |
290 warheads |
6,000 warheads |
Russia has a quantitative advantage; France maintains credible independent arsenal. |
HYBRID AND TECHNOLOGICAL THREATS
Europe faces a broad spectrum of threats. Since 2022, over 3,000 cyberattacks have targeted critical infrastructure across the continent, while drone overflights have increased. Yet not all incidents are hostile: thorough investigation shows that more than 80 percent of recent flights were caused by errors or amateur activity. Overreaction could play directly into Moscow’s hands.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to refine its arsenal: S-400 and S-500 systems, short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and autonomous armoured vehicles. For France, this requires a combination of conventional preparedness, cyber defence, and technological anticipation. The question is no longer whether Europe will be attacked, but how and at what scale.
REARMING AND COORDINATION
Europe and France must revise their strategic approach. Russia possesses 1,200 operational combat aircraft, 1.5 times the combined capacity of France, Germany, and Italy. France itself fields approximately 300 combat aircraft, with 70 additional Rafales expected by 2028.
Nuclear deterrence, long considered an absolute shield, is no longer sufficient to prevent limited strikes or targeted attacks. Recent conflicts—Ukraine versus Russia, Israel versus Iran—demonstrate that even nuclear-armed states are vulnerable to targeted military maneuvers. France must therefore learn to operate within coalitions, modernize anti-drone systems, strengthen long-range radar, and maintain operational continuity across all forces.
ANTICIPATING TO SECURE
Vigilance extends beyond equipment and personnel; it requires a cultural shift in strategic thinking. French forces and their European allies must recognize that defence now depends on reactivity, coordination, and anticipation. The current period is one of preparation and fortification, aimed at ensuring the ability to confront a major shock in the coming years.
General Mandon and his teams stress that France must be ready to respond rapidly and effectively, whether the threat manifests through hybrid warfare, limited strikes, or conventional confrontation. The message is clear: Europe can no longer rely solely on nuclear protection or the inaction of allies; it must take responsibility for its own defence today.
*Author is former member of the UN senior staff