In his speech in London President Tadic apparently wanted to suggest the changes in the politics of Belgrade toward Kosovo. Unless he told the British audience something much more radical, that our public is not aware of, these are still more likely just indications and not the actual changes of the current politics. Presumably, the Serbian leadership thinks it is an appropriate and sufficient measure for this moment.
This conclusion is based on the assessment that the majority of European Union member countries seem to be satisfied with just a renewal of negotiations with Pristina as a condition for obtaining the candidate status for EU membership in December. However, German Chancellor Merkel demanded the abolition of Serbian parallel institutions in Northern Kosovo when she visited Belgrade in August. Belgrade is obviously not ready to do so, and in exchange, Tadic’s speech offers a new guarantee of good will and readiness for compromises and relatively quick solutions, hoping that this will be enough.
This was the first time that a Serbian official in London said “we certainly want Kosovo to participate in our regional forums”, although this was done very cautiously. It is not clear – and it has to be – whether Belgrade will now stop demanding that Kosovo representatives have UNMIK board in front of them, instead of the one that says Kosovo, so they could speak at international meetings. According to the interpretations from Belgrade, Kosovo politicians could participate in regional forums until now, but only as members of the delegation of UNMIK.
It is likely that the vague and cautious announcements of partial change in the politics toward Kosovo, with the most important aspect – return to the negotiating table, will be sufficient reasons for the European Council to approve Serbia’s candidate status in December. This, however, is not going to be enough to start negotiations on accession to EU.
The second goal, which should have been achieved before the upcoming elections, is obviously no longer considered as well-founded among Belgrade officials. Not only was the nomination brought into question, although it was absolutely certain after sending Mladic and Hadzic to The Hague, but the October’s report of European Commission precisely formulated five necessary conditions to start negotiations on Serbian membership: Serbia to stop blocking the participation of Kosovo in regional forums; to implement the Treaty establishing the Energy Community, to find solutions in telecommunications and the common recognition of diplomas, to implement all the agreements reached so far in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, and that Serbia cooperates with EULEX so that this mission could perform all functions in all parts of Kosovo (in other words, to remove roadblocks and to allow the freedom of movement in the North).
From the present perspective, it is unlikely that Belgrade can sucessfully meet all these criteria in the near future. Following the escalation of conflict among Serbian authorities and Serbian leaders in Kosovo, any agreement and any solution are becoming more and more unlikely.
At the same time, all EU members, including the five countries that have not recognized Kosovo, obviously want this dialogue to bring the best results as quickly as possible. For this reason, even now, before the candidate status has been granted, detailed conditions for further integration of Serbia in relation to Kosovo are being set. This is obviously a result of the assessment that the effects will be smaller and more time will be wasted if Serbia starts coping with “Kosovo criteria” only upon the start of membership negotiations.