At the Congress of the Russian Geographical Society last autumn, Russian President Vladimir Putin asked his government to declare 2027 Russia’s “Year of Geography”. The main event, he explained, will be the “consolidation of . . . new maps of the Russian Federation.” Annexed Ukrainian territories will be showcased, depicting the occupied lands as an integral part of the Russian Federation.
Across Europe and particularly in Germany, 2027 will be a “Year of History”. Last Sunday the voters of Saxony-Anhalt inflicted unprecedented damage to the “firewall” designed to keep the far right from power and stave off any return of past horrors. The enthusiastic turnout (almost 80 per cent) made one think of no less than the toppling of the Berlin Wall four decades ago. Saxony-Anhalt may not be Germany — with two million residents, it hardly even stands for the whole of the old East Germany — but it is fair to conclude that the lessons of the 20th century have lost their power to shape European politics.
“NEVER AGAIN”
A future defined by the slogan “never again” has a built-in shelf life; it expires when the memory of the past no longer exists. For younger generations, both communism and fascism belong to a distant past that no longer defines their political choices. It was the oldest voters — those who lived under the old East German regime — that were least likely to vote for the AfD.
What AfD voters wanted to reverse was not the collapse of the old regime but the fact that, since 1989, one in four inhabitants of the region has left. Now everybody lives with the anxiety that their country is slipping away. Liberals fear they are losing their democracy; nationalists fear that they are losing their culture. Reacting to the Saxony-Anhalt results, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said: “In Poland only idiots and traitors can rejoice at the triumph of the AfD.”
And while 74 per cent of Europeans polled by Eurobarometer said their country benefits from EU membership — the highest level of support since 1983 — the EU risks falling victim not to popular revolt but to something that resembles a bank run. The more you fear that others are losing confidence in the Union, the more you are tempted to hedge and withdraw your support for it. Everyone wants to ensure that if things go wrong they will pay the lowest cost.
EUROPEAN NIGHTMARE
The combination of Russia’s Year of Geography and Germany’s Year of History is a nightmare for Europe. Russia will spend 2027 printing maps, Europe will spend 2027 printing ballots. It will witness the French presidential election and parliamentary elections in Italy, Spain and Poland. Present polling suggests that each one could produce governing coalitions tilted heavily to the right and composed of parties traditionally considered eurosceptical.
Those favoured to win are of different stripes and their views on the EU are often nuanced, but they are also dangerously fragmented. Giorgia Meloni in Italy, the Law and Justice Party in Poland, and the People’s Party in Spain would all likely need to govern with parties positioned to their right. Any move to the centre would be dangerous. US President Donald Trump can complicate things further if he throws his support behind the most radical elements.
As a result, the fate of the EU won’t be decreed by political elites playing whack-a-mole as they struggle to keep the far right out of power. It will be decided by their ability to build a new European consensus in which liberals and those they have long labelled “fascists” can coexist inside the same union, and where both stand ready to defend Europe’s sovereignty.
The conundrum for mainstream parties is that to keep the far right out of power they need to portray their opponents as instruments of Moscow or Washington or as dangerous radicals intending to destroy the union. At the same time, in order to prevent a “bank run” on the EU, they must persuade the public that they can still do business with them and that their victory will not trigger EU fragmentation.
Of course it matters who wins the French presidency; but it matters more which issues the next French president prioritises. The EU can live with a leader who wants a tougher migration policy or to slow the green transition; it cannot work with one who openly sides with Moscow, turns against Brussels or reduces Europe to an appendage of Trump’s America.
The problem is not that one position is respectable and the other disgraceful. It is that migration rules can be rewritten by the next government, while redrawing a country’s borders is very hard to undo. Maps outlive majorities.
*Author is Albert Hirschman Permanent Fellow Institute for Human Sciences, IWM Vienna, Chairman, Centre for Liberal Strategies, Sofia