From Berlin to Belgrade, and from Belgrade to Paris, Europe is discovering the true price of its energy dependence. The recent experiences of Germany, Serbia, and France reveal a shared vulnerability: economies once confident in their energy security are
now exposed to the political, strategic, and economic costs of relying on imported oil, gas, and coal. Energy, long treated as an economic commodity, has become a key instrument of geopolitical influence.
BERLIN: Germany was the first to face this reality. By making Russian gas the cornerstone of its industrial model, Berlin believed it could guarantee both low prices and stable growth. The Nord Stream pipelines symbolized an integrated Europe where trade would overcome political divisions. But the war in Ukraine shattered that illusion. Cut off from Russian gas, Germany rushed to replace it with costly liquefied natural gas from the United States and Qatar, even restarting some coal plants in the process. The shock undermined its industrial competitiveness and cast doubt on its role as Europe’s
economic engine.
BELGRADE: Serbia is now experiencing a similar crisis. Its national oil company, NIS—majority-owned by Russian groups—has been hit by U.S. sanctions. Deprived of crude oil and cut off from international payment systems, Belgrade is being forced to rethink its alliances. Caught between Moscow, its historic ally, and Brussels, its desired partner, Serbia is discovering the limits of pragmatic dependence. Its political sovereignty is being eroded by structural reliance on Russian energy.
PARIS: France, for its part, once believed its largely decarbonized electricity sector offered protection. Yet according to the Shift Project, more than 70 percent of France’s total energy consumption—across households and industries—still depends on
fossil fuels. Nuclear and renewable power provide only one-fifth of the country’s final energy use. Most of its oil and gas now come from outside Europe, notably Algeria, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. With declining North Sea output, France’s growing dependence on distant and politically volatile suppliers exposes it to
new geopolitical pressures, including U.S. influence on Europe’s energy policies.
Europe is thus relearning an essential truth: cheap energy is never politically neutral. The illusion of safe dependence has collapsed. Today, the true measure of a nation’s strength lies not in the volume of barrels or cubic meters it controls, but in its capacity to choose freely its energy path. And that freedom, whatever its price, will always cost less than dependence.
Across all three nations, the conclusion is the same: energy dependence is political dependence. It limits sovereignty, weakens economic resilience, and narrows strategic choices. Energy security is no longer about price or technology—it is about freedom of decision. To restore that freedom, the solutions converge.
Diversification of supply, greater investment in renewables, and a strong commitment to nuclear power all emerge as key pillars. For Serbia, building a modern reactor such as an EPR could mark a historic shift—providing stable electricity, reducing reliance on imported hydrocarbons, and strengthening ties with Europe. For France, maintaining its nuclear capacity and accelerating electrification are vital for long-term competitiveness. For Germany, the challenge lies in rebuilding an industrial model aligned with decarbonization while avoiding the geopolitical traps of the past.
*Author is former member of the UN senior staff