The Danish military intelligence service (Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) has released its annual assessment of strategic and security risks, a key reference document for the country’s political and military authorities. For the first time since its creation, the United States is explicitly mentioned as a source of strategic concern.
Denmark, a state known for its geopolitical clarity and pragmatic approach to defense issues, often ahead of the curve on restrictive migration policies within the European Union, has become the first member state to officially classify the United States as a potential threat, on par with other rival powers.
This assessment is based on the latest FE report, which lists the “prospects” (usdyns) to monitor—long-term dynamics likely to destabilize the kingdom, Northern Europe, and the continent as a whole.
The situation is described as “particularly serious and enduring,” emphasizes FE chief Thomas Ahrenkiel, who warns in the foreword:
“The Kingdom of Denmark faces threats and security challenges more serious than since the end of the Cold War.”
He highlights an unprecedented confluence of simultaneous crises, citing “intensified great power competition in the Arctic, China’s overt ambition to reshape the world order, and the persistent threat of transnational Islamist terrorism.”
RUSSIA: A SOCIETY MOBILIZED FOR CONFRONTATION
The main concern of Danish analysts remains Moscow, considered the most credible direct military threat to Europe. They believe the conflict in Ukraine will continue beyond 2025, noting that Russian diplomatic signals mask a strategy of maximum pressure.
Statements in favor of negotiations are accompanied, according to the report, by “very broad and non-negotiable demands” on Kyiv and NATO, with no indication of any genuine willingness to compromise or de-escalate.
Even more alarming, the FE describes Russia as “methodically preparing for direct confrontation with NATO” by accelerating rearmament, restructuring its economy around the war effort, and militarizing the entire civilian society.
Military education is now institutionalized, mandatory at various school levels, and integrated into major public enterprises and strategic administrations.
The Kremlin conducts a massive, centralized propaganda campaign aimed at creating a permanent siege mentality, fostering a deeply rooted anti-Western sentiment. According to the FE, Russia “ideologically conditions new generations to the idea of an inevitable and existential conflict with the West.”
This structural indoctrination, analysts warn, will outlast the current regime: even a successor to Vladimir Putin would inherit a population psychologically prepared for confrontation.
Industrially, Russia has been producing since 2024 more ammunition, armored vehicles, and missiles than it consumes on the Ukrainian battlefield.
If the conflict freezes or ends, this wartime-level production capacity would make Moscow an even more dangerous military power, facing a Europe judged slow, divided, and underarmed.
The report also stresses Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare, including sophisticated cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, GPS jamming, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and industrial and military espionage.
Danish services report that Russian networks have operated on European soil for decades, targeting primarily defense technologies, energy, and telecommunications.
They specifically mention Russian drones entering Polish airspace in late 2025, described as a “calculated provocation” intended to test NATO’s credibility and responsiveness.
ISLAMIST THREAT AND IRREGULAR MIGRATION
Islamist terrorism remains one of the most immediate and unpredictable threats, according to the FE. The report recalls the knife attack in Mulhouse in early 2025, emblematic of low-cost, hard-to-detect violence with high psychological impact.
Services note an increase in both foiled and successful attack plots, fueled by individual radicalization and online propaganda.
The simplicity of the operational methods (bladed weapons, vehicles, improvised devices) combined with a volatile geopolitical context, notably the war in Gaza, serves as an ideological catalyst for calls to violence by Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
The FE explicitly links this threat to irregular migration, consistent with Denmark’s strategy to “prevent the emergence of parallel societies.”
Concern is particularly high regarding Syria, where the Islamic State shows signs of resurgence. A massive release of jihadists from Kurdish prisons, the report warns, could trigger an influx of experienced fighters into Europe, sharply increasing the risk of attacks.
CHINESE INFLUENCE AND ESPIONAGE
China is described as a patient but systematic power, seeking to weaken Western influence without direct military confrontation, in order to present itself as a credible alternative to American leadership.
The report devotes a detailed analysis to Beijing, accusing it of seeking to reshape international norms, notably by promoting a relativistic and non-universal conception of human rights in multilateral forums.
The main threat to Denmark lies in large-scale economic and technological espionage, targeting the illegal transfer of strategic know-how, particularly in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, green energy, and advanced military systems.
A notable example cited is the 2025 conviction of a far-right German MEP for passing sensitive information about Western military aircraft to Chinese services.
AMERICAN AMBITIONS: A WORRYING NEW FACTOR
The most disruptive element of the report is the inclusion of the United States among risk factors, a historic turning point in European perceptions of transatlantic security.
Danish concerns focus on two major axes: U.S. ambitions in the Arctic, a key region for shipping routes, natural resources, and military deterrence. The FE highlights “the growing strategic interest of the United States in Greenland,” an autonomous Danish territory, recalling Donald Trump’s past statements about a potential purchase.
This increased interest would heighten risks of espionage, political pressure, and cyberattacks, not only against Greenland but across the kingdom.
And also, Washington’s reliability as Europe’s ultimate security guarantor is now questioned. The FE fears that further U.S. troop withdrawals from the continent could be interpreted by Moscow as a sign of weakness, encouraging a more aggressive posture.
More broadly, the report criticizes growing U.S. unilateralism, noting that it “no longer excludes the use of military or economic force, including against its allies,” and uses trade pressures and sanctions as political tools.
This analysis paints a grim picture of Europe caught in a vise, facing simultaneous, multidimensional, and interconnected threats, where yesterday’s strategic certainties are collapsing.
Traditional alliances are weakened, adversaries are strengthening, and the threat can now come from both declared rivals and historical partners.
The report reflects a profound shift in the European security order, marked by lasting instability and a fundamental challenge to geopolitical balances.
*Author is former member of the UN senior staff